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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DAL
50.7%
CAR
49.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.006 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Miles Sanders RB Out Knee
CeeDee Lamb WR Out Ankle
Jack Sanborn LB Out Concussion
KaVontae Turpin WR Out Foot
Tyler Booker G Out Ankle
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Knee
Tyler Smith G Questionable Knee
DaRon Bland CB Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Mingo WR Questionable Knee
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Knee
Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable Ankle
Ajani Cornelius T Questionable Knee

CAR

Taylor Moton T Out Elbow
Tershawn Wharton DT Out Toe
Chuba Hubbard RB Out Calf
Akayleb Evans CB Out Hamstring
Mike Jackson CB Questionable Ribs
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Questionable Ankle
Chau Smith-Wade CB Questionable Chest
Jalen Coker WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
CAR 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:11 FG CAR (9:11) 10-R.Fitzgerald 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DAL 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 04:51 FG DAL (4:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 40-H.Luepke for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – CAR 3
  • Q2 11:35 TD CAR (11:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. DAL 10 – CAR 9
  • Q2 03:43 TD DAL (3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:25 FG CAR (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DAL 17 – CAR 13
  • Q3 13:27 TD CAR (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 5-R.Dowdle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – CAR 19
  • Q3 02:45 TD DAL (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – CAR 20
  • Q4 12:24 TD CAR (12:24) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 24 – CAR 26
  • Q4 09:23 FG DAL (9:23) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – CAR 27
  • Q4 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DAL 27 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:30) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CAR 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-38-A.Clark.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 96%

    (9:11) 10-R.Fitzgerald 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (4:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 40-H.Luepke for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 76%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to CAR 22 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Penalty on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 59%

    (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 14 for no gain (38-A.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:38) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 17. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 27 for 10 yards (48-T.Incoom).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:23) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:31) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DAL 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 46 for 9 yards (20-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:14) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 50%

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).