Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 14 for no gain (38-A.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model