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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model