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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 69

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 21 for 5 yards (89-J.Ruckert; 27-M.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model