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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 09:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DEN
68.7%
NYJ
31.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • DEN offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Bo Nix (DEN): +0.115 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 26
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

Ben Powers G Out Biceps
Jonah Elliss LB Out Ribs
Malcolm Roach DT Questionable Calf

NYJ

Allen Lazard WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Michael Carter II CB Out Concussion
Ja'Markis Weston LB Out Groin
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 13
–
NYJ 11

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:05 FG NYJ (11:05) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. DEN 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 07:08 FG DEN (7:08) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 04:59 FG NYJ (4:59) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. DEN 3 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 00:02 TD DEN (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 10:29 FG NYJ (10:29) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. DEN 10 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 05:02 SAF NYJ (5:02) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-11-T.Franklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. DEN 10 – NYJ 11
  • Q4 05:09 FG DEN (5:09) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 13 – NYJ 11

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 72%

    (11:05) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 60%

    (7:08) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (4:59) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 39%

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 21 for 5 yards (89-J.Ruckert; 27-M.Moore).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%

    (9:27) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for 6 yards (27-M.Moore).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 44%

    (3:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 29 yards to NYJ 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:04) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-B.Hall. 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 38 for 1 yard (47-K.Reid).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (10:29) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 12 yards (46-A.Prentice; 26-D.Key).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%

    (5:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DEN 3, impetus ends at DEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 49 yards to DEN 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to NYJ 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 24 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (48-M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:23) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to DEN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:09) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 13 yards (6-P.Locke).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).