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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 49

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP