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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-B.Hall. 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 38 for 1 yard (47-K.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model