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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 34

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model