4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 71

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 12 yards (46-A.Prentice; 26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model