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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 45

New York Jets 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DEN 3, impetus ends at DEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model