Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 11

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (48-M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model