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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 70

New York Jets 11 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to DEN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP