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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 9

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 11

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model