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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 89

Denver Broncos 13 – New York Jets 11

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 13 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 89, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model