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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 39

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP