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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 23

New York Jets 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model