4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to DET 38 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.60 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model