Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- KC offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.113 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.308 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
DET
KC
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:24 FG DET (5:24) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – KC 0
- Q1 01:14 TD KC (1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 6
- Q2 12:56 TD DET (12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play. DET 9 – KC 6
- Q2 00:40 TD KC (:40) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-P.O'Connor, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 10 – KC 12
- Q3 11:23 TD KC (11:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 5-M.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – KC 19
- Q4 14:20 TD DET (14:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – KC 20
- Q4 09:35 TD KC (9:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – KC 26
- Q4 02:29 FG KC (2:29) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DET 17 – KC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(5:24) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%
(10:14) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to DET 38 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%
(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 41%
(2:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [51-M.Danna].
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(:17) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
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Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%
(6:50) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to KC 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DET 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:26) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-N.Remigio to DET 49 for 21 yards (3-J.Fox).
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Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 15 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(2:29) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(2:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.