4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 44

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [51-M.Danna].

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model