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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 48

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to KC 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model