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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 64

Detroit Lions 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.10 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -1.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model