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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.27 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model