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Los Angeles Rams

4-2 HC Sean McVay
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Baltimore Ravens

1-5 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LA
61.9%
BAL
38.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Cooper Rush (BAL) -0.099 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.184 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LA on 3 more days rest than BAL
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 24 17–31
–
BAL 21 14–28
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

LA

Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Ankle
Omar Speights LB Doubtful Ankle
Colby Parkinson TE Questionable Concussion
Tutu Atwell WR Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Chidobe Awuzie CB Out Hamstring
Lamar Jackson QB Out Hamstring
Roquan Smith LB Out Hamstring
Devontez Walker WR Out Oblique
Emery Jones Jr. T Out Shoulder
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 17
–
BAL 3

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:26 FG BAL (7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. LA 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 09:53 FG LA (9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – BAL 3
  • Q3 11:55 TD LA (11:55) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – BAL 3
  • Q3 10:25 TD LA (10:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – BAL 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (2:27) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 67%

    (14:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [0-B.Young].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 19%

    (5:10) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:38) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-L.Wester pushed ob at LA 32 for 35 yards (42-E.Evans).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%

    (12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (13:33) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 11 for -5 yards (sack split by 40-T.Buchanan and 32-T.Simpson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%

    (8:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to LA 32 for 19 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [0-B.Young].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to BAL 38 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins [8-J.Verse].

    See the full breakdown →