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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model