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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 1

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).

The Three Options

GO +4.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.81 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model