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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 11 for -5 yards (sack split by 40-T.Buchanan and 32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model