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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to LA 32 for 19 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model