Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.64 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model