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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +6.00 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model