4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 39

New England Patriots 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model