4TH&DATA
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New England Patriots

4-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

1-5 HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
63.1%
NO
36.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.188 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.109 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 25 18–32
–
NO 21 14–28
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Anfernee Jennings LB Out Ankle
Jaylinn Hawkins S Out Hamstring
Antonio Gibson RB Out Knee
Keion White DE Out Elbow
Milton Williams DT Questionable Illness
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Neck
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Hamstring
Charles Woods CB Questionable Knee

NO

Isaac Yiadom CB Out Hamstring
John Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
NO 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:54 FG NO (12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 11:03 TD NE (11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NO 3
  • Q1 05:09 FG NO (5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 7 – NO 6
  • Q1 00:42 TD NE (:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NO 6
  • Q2 09:47 TD NO (9:47) (Shotgun) 79-L.Fortner reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – NO 12
  • Q2 01:55 FG NO (1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 14 – NO 16
  • Q2 00:38 TD NE (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. NE 20 – NO 16
  • Q3 07:29 FG NE (7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 25 – NO 16
  • Q4 13:46 FG NO (13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 25 – NO 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 64%

    (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%

    (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to NO 22 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

    (4:23) 32-K.Kroeger punts 23 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 39 for 12 yards (91-E.Ponder).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (5:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:55) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 6 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

    See the full breakdown →