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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model