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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 36

New England Patriots 22 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to NO 22 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -2.05 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model