4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 6

New England Patriots 22 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP