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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 16 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model