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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 43

New England Patriots 25 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model