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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 1 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 0-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model