4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Thursday 2025-10-09 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

PHI
71.1%
NYG
28.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.258 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.116 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
NYG 17
Projected margin: PHI by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Landon Dickerson G Out Ankle
Grant Calcaterra TE Out Oblique
Nakobe Dean LB Questionable Knee
Jalen Carter DT Questionable Heel

NYG

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Hamstring
Darius Slayton WR Out Hamstring
Swayze Bozeman LB Out Ankle
Jermaine Eluemunor T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 17
–
NYG 34

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 FG PHI (12:03) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 10:06 TD NYG (10:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart scrambles up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – NYG 6
  • Q1 05:49 TD NYG (5:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – NYG 13
  • Q1 01:54 TD PHI (1:54) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NYG 13
  • Q2 07:02 TD PHI (7:02) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-98-D.Davidson was injured during the play. PHI 16 – NYG 13
  • Q2 01:22 TD NYG (1:22) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – NYG 19
  • Q3 07:59 TD NYG (7:59) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – NYG 26
  • Q4 09:47 TD NYG (9:47) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – NYG 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (12:03) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:49) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 34 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (15:00) 12-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 26 for 7 yards (31-N.Jones).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (8:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 1 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 0-B.Burns).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:50) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 13.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:15) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to NYG 44, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:33) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 10 for no gain.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (1:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to PHI 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (14:09) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to NYG 21, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 13 yards (21-S.Brown).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:03) 12-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 34 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton; 53-D.Muasau).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 20 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton).