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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP