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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 63

New York Giants 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP