4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to NYG 44, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.79 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP