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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 42

New York Giants 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to PHI 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model