4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to TEN 35 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model