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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
29.4%
LV
70.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Geno Smith (LV) -0.021 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.261 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
LV 25
Projected margin: LV by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TEN

Arden Key LB Out Quadricep
Joey Slye K Out Calf
Blake Hance G Out Shoulder
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Marcus Harris CB Out Calf
Van Jefferson WR Questionable Ankle
JC Latham T Questionable Hip

LV

Brock Bowers TE Out Knee
AJ Cole P Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 10
–
LV 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:11 FG LV (4:11) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. TEN 0 – LV 3
  • Q2 05:18 TD LV (5:18) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – LV 9
  • Q3 07:07 TD LV (7:07) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – LV 16
  • Q3 01:10 FG TEN (1:10) 14-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 3 – LV 17
  • Q4 07:17 FG LV (7:17) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. TEN 3 – LV 20
  • Q4 03:07 TD TEN (3:07) 62-C.Levin and 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 88-D.Martin-Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – LV 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:59) 3-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to LV 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 79%

    (4:11) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LV 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 35 for 25 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:34) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to LV 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (54-D.Mausi).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:46) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LV 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%

    (11:48) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to TEN 35 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (1:10) 14-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to LV 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 4 yards (52-J.Williams).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (7:17) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 62%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor to LV 29 for 11 yards (22-E.Stokes; 44-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (2:45) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to TEN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 95 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 25 for 20 yards (11-J.Chinn).