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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to TEN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP