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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model