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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP