Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(1:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP

KICK -1.08 EP

40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model