Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- SF offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
ATL
SF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 12:59 FG ATL (12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – SF 0
- Q2 01:50 TD SF (1:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – SF 6
- Q2 00:43 FG SF (:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – SF 10
- Q3 10:14 FG SF (10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – SF 13
- Q3 06:34 TD ATL (6:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – SF 13
- Q4 02:31 TD SF (2:31) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – SF 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 75%
(13:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to SF 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%
(8:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%
(12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%
(8:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%
(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%
(10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(4:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 13 yards (33-S.Neal; 89-L.Farrell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%
(1:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Turner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 70%
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.
See the full breakdown →
