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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP